Ryan Howard was just signed to a 5 year $125 million extension by the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday. This will make him the second highest paid player in MLB, following only Alex Rodriguez. Looking at the last four years it is easy to justify that he is worth it for a team that can afford to pay players big money. He has more home runs and RBI than anyone in baseball over that span, including Albert Pujols. In fact, he is the only player to hit over 45 home runs and have over 135 RBI in four straight seasons, the other being Babe Ruth. He also has done everything the Phillies have wanted over the last few years including working on improving his defense and losing some weight. He is only in his 7th season and has reached 225 home runs in fewer at bats than anyone in history. So, he should be paid as much as anyone in baseball right? He also should be worthy of a 5 year contract, after all most stars are now getting six, seven or in A Rod's case ten years.
Well, look closer and you will see that this contract in fact is NOT a good deal for Philadelphia, and more importantly a potentially damaging deal for the St. Louis Cardinals.
I think Philadelphia reached quite far on this deal. Sure Howard has been great and put up great numbers, but a look closer and you will see that they are not as good as they seem. First of all Howard is already 30 years old even though it is only his 7th season. He also still has two years left on his current contract, meaning he will be turning 37 years old less than a month after his contract is up. Other than Barry Bonds (who may have had a little help keeping fit) no one in recent history has been anywhere near as productive as they moved into the middle of their 30's when it comes to power numbers. Howard, despite being intentionally walked often, still only has an OBP of .380 over the last 4 years and a batting average of about .270. He is helped greatly by the lineup he hits in. With guys in front of him who get on base and guys behind him who help protect him he is pitched too more often than most great hitters in the league. What will happen if Philly has to let a few guys go in order to keep to their budget. What happens when after losing one or two guys someone gets injured? A lot can change.
I look at this as a reach because I compare him to other players with huge contracts and wonder if he is worth it. Alex Rodriguez is the highest paid player in MLB. Sure he hasn't been able to live up to his contract, but he still puts up great numbers and plays 3B, a much more difficult position than Howard plays, and one that has very few great hitters at it. A Rod also is coming off of an injury and a lot of off the field problems. I'm not saying A Rod is worth more than Howard, I'm just saying. Joe Mauer is next on the list. Sure I'm a homer, but I have to think Mauer is worth a lot more than either of those guys are. He doesn't have the same power the other guys do, but last year his OPS was 1.031, Howards was .931. That's a big difference. A Rod's, if you were wondering, was .933. Most importantly, Mauer plays C and is in my opinion, and many others, the best combination of a defender and game caller in baseball. He also is making less than Howard is, but a lot of that is because of the home town discount he gave the Twins.
Then you look at the best hitter in baseball, Albert Pujols, who is also about to become the highest paid player whether with the Cardinals or not. Pujols' numbers are sick. They are video game numbers. To put it in perspective, Ryan Howard's best OPS was 1.084, A Rod's 1.067, and both in the middle of lineups filled with all stars. Albert Pujols?? Well he has had four season with a higher OPS than Howard's 1.084 in the last 7 seasons, and two more over 1.039. His down year was a terrible .997, which of course is still somehow .063 points higher than Justin Morneau's best year. Think of that. All of this while hitting in a lineup without anywhere near the help. Pujols also is a very good first baseman, and a few months younger than Howard.
All of this leads to the big question: Will St. Louis be able to re-sign Pujols? Its a valid question, especially with what Howard just got paid. After Mauer signed it looked great for St. Louis and Pujols. here was a kid who wanted to play where he was comfortable and was willing to give a discount because the fans loved him and he is Minnesota. Pujols may not have been born in St. Louis, but he has been there since he was a teenager. It looked like Pujols would be able to sign for a little less with less pressure from the players union to get paid. It looked like he would be able to get paid fairly, when compared to Mauer. It looked like St. Louis wold be able to follow in Minnesota's foot steps and find a way to keep their guy. We were thinking maybe $28 million a year, making sure he was the highest paid player while not breaking the bank for St. Louis. Now though? Well he is a better hitter than Howard, will be able to continue to be very effective as a hitter even if his power goes later in the contract because he is a great contact and gap hitter, he is better in the field, and he is in better shape, leading us to believe he will play better longer. Now it looks like St. Louis would be lucky to get him for $30 million a year.
I really hope that St. Louis finds a way. Whether they take the hit as a team to try and win, raise ticket prices a few dollars to make up the cost (remember, 3 million people go through the gates every year, money can be made up fast with small increases in ticket and/or concession prices) or cut their payroll elsewhere St. Louis needs to keep Pujols, not just for their sake, but for all of baseball's. We need more players staying in their cities instead of going elsewhere for paydays with the same teams. It will be better for baseball.
Howard is great hitter, don't get me wrong. He is probably worth it for the first couple years of his contract too, especially if Philadelphia can win another ring. In the long run though, I see this ending much in the same way as Mo Vaugn's huge contract with the Mets. Big guys tend to break down early. Its hard on their knees and the rest of their body. Big guys are more injury prone, Vaugn, Frank Thomas, David Ortiz and many others all started to break down as the moved towards their mid 30's. Its one thing for a guy to continue to play great if they are a defensive star or a great average hitter, that is more about hand eye coordination and instincts. Power is about, well, power. I think Philly should have waited to extended Howard, or maybe only extended him 3 years. That's me though. I watch from my couch. I also thought Oden was going to be better than Durant. I'll apologize for that one day. For now, I'll just give another opinion.
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