Friday, April 30, 2010

Big Ten Expansion: Part 1

I thought about doing one big article on the probable expansion of the Big Ten conference, but there is just too much to talk about to try and capture it all at once. Instead, I'm going to break it up into a few posts, including focusing on what would happen to all of the collegiate conferences if the Big Ten expanded to 14 or 16 teams. For now though, I'm going to focus on what should happen, that being that the Big Ten should add Notre Dame and call it good, and how college football should move forward after this.



I know that some people out there still think that Notre Dame is Notre Dame and can be independent and all will be good. They of course are naive and most likely Irish supporters. The fact is that college football has changed. It no longer is only a select few games on NBC, ABC and CBS. The Big Ten has its own network, the SEC has every game showing on ESPN/ABC and affiliates, and even teams like Boise St., East Carolina and Utah can found on TV almost every weekend. Notre Dame was able to survive as an independent because for the longest time they were one of the only teams that was on TV every week. You grew up wanting to play for Notre Dame because you knew you would be on TV every week. Its not just the money like many people talk about though, its also the exposure. Now that you can be seen on TV every week no matter where you play you don't have to go to Notre Dame, you can go anywhere! This means your decision comes down to going somewhere and holding the clipboard for two or three years and hoping the next Peyton Manning doesn't come to your school your junior year, or going somewhere else and starting from day one, which might also be close to home where your family can see you too.



There also is this thing called the BCS. Now hopefully the BCS changes and instead of keeping the same format they have an actual tournament soon, but even if they don't Notre Dame is now at a big disadvantage for a National Title. They still have a good chance to play if they can run table for now, but one loss and all of the sudden you are competing with the SEC or Big Ten champ who probably might also have one loss but play in a big conference. THe Big Ten doesn't have the playoff to propel a champ further yet, but once the twelfth team arrives they will. And you can bet that the team, if not Notre Dame, will be a very good team like Pit, Missouri or Nebraska. There is no way that a one loss Notre Dame team can compete with an OSU team that has one loss and finishes the season with a win against a one or two loss Big Ten school from the other division. The SEC is already on a pedestal and any one loss team is a shoe in.



So, I believe that if the Big Ten expands only one team it will be Notre Dame. This is the best case scenario in my mind for Notre Dame and the Big Ten. Twelve teams is great because you have two six team conferences which means you get play the same five teams every year and can rotate three teams from the other division. The conference will most likely go to a North and South division. IT is not ideal for travel, but would probably put Purdue, Michigan State, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Wisconsin and then my guess would be Iowa in the same division. I know Michigan and Notre Dame have a long standing rivalry, but something would have to give, and Minnesota has to play Iowa and Wisconsin every year, they are too big of games for all three teams, and Minnesota is the only conference rival of both. Oh, and the "tradition" of the Michigan and Notre Dame Rivalry is only 37 games deep, so if that is tossed aside its not that big of a deal. Notre Dame could then play Army, Navy, USC and Stanford out of conference. Sure its not the easiest schedule, but then again once the new format goes into effect all that matters for them is winning the division, so they are just good tune up games. This allows Michigan and OSU to play every year. I think an East and West division would be best with Minnesota, Wisonsin, Iowa, NW, Illinois and Indiana or Purdue, but the conference won't want Michigan, Notre Dame, PSU and OSU in the same division because they are four of the best six teams the last 25+ years.

I think the NCAA then should of course move to an eight team tournament with one team from each of the big six conferences and two more. I think there are many ways to find out who is the best of the rest, but I think that a great way to make sure everyone has a chance is to add another championship game, we can call it the Best of the Rest championship game. The top two teams from a non big six conference can play with the winner getting a spot. Then the eighth spot would go to the top team left. If we had a situation where there were three teams who all were undefeated, maybe Boise St, TCU and East Carolina all go undefeated, then I think the only fair way to go would be have the top team get a spot and the winner of the other game get the other. This most likely won't happen, but if it did I don't think any team that didn't win their conference has an argument, take care of your business when you have the chance.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

I admit it, I was wrong

Three years ago this June I proclaimed that Portland would be stupid not to take Greg Oden first overall in the NBA draft. I was very confident with what Oden could do for any team, especially one with a lot of young talent like Portland. They already had Brandon Roy at the 3 and Aldridge at power forward. Sure they had Pryzbilla at center, but Oden was the next sure thing. He had the height, he had the low post moves and he was athletic for a guy his size. He also was low key and would stay out of trouble. I got into many arguments over him and Durant, and it turns I was wrong. Very wrong. Durant may not be able to lead his team past the Lakers this year, but it might be the last year he will not be able to. The Lakers are loaded, Kobe is still probably the second best player in the NBA, Gasol is among the best big men, Artest can still play D, Lamar Oden may not have evolved into LaMarvelous, but he is good. Durant's supporting cast meanwhile could still be in college.

I was wrong about Oden, but I think I was more wrong about Durant. Next year I think he moves into the spot as the best player not named Lebron. Next year I think the Thunder represent the West. Maybe next year we will get to see what Oden can do. Next year the Timberwolves will still be competing with the Thursday night men's rec league for the biggest attendance.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

MLB Contracts

Ryan Howard was just signed to a 5 year $125 million extension by the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday. This will make him the second highest paid player in MLB, following only Alex Rodriguez. Looking at the last four years it is easy to justify that he is worth it for a team that can afford to pay players big money. He has more home runs and RBI than anyone in baseball over that span, including Albert Pujols. In fact, he is the only player to hit over 45 home runs and have over 135 RBI in four straight seasons, the other being Babe Ruth. He also has done everything the Phillies have wanted over the last few years including working on improving his defense and losing some weight. He is only in his 7th season and has reached 225 home runs in fewer at bats than anyone in history. So, he should be paid as much as anyone in baseball right? He also should be worthy of a 5 year contract, after all most stars are now getting six, seven or in A Rod's case ten years.



Well, look closer and you will see that this contract in fact is NOT a good deal for Philadelphia, and more importantly a potentially damaging deal for the St. Louis Cardinals.



I think Philadelphia reached quite far on this deal. Sure Howard has been great and put up great numbers, but a look closer and you will see that they are not as good as they seem. First of all Howard is already 30 years old even though it is only his 7th season. He also still has two years left on his current contract, meaning he will be turning 37 years old less than a month after his contract is up. Other than Barry Bonds (who may have had a little help keeping fit) no one in recent history has been anywhere near as productive as they moved into the middle of their 30's when it comes to power numbers. Howard, despite being intentionally walked often, still only has an OBP of .380 over the last 4 years and a batting average of about .270. He is helped greatly by the lineup he hits in. With guys in front of him who get on base and guys behind him who help protect him he is pitched too more often than most great hitters in the league. What will happen if Philly has to let a few guys go in order to keep to their budget. What happens when after losing one or two guys someone gets injured? A lot can change.



I look at this as a reach because I compare him to other players with huge contracts and wonder if he is worth it. Alex Rodriguez is the highest paid player in MLB. Sure he hasn't been able to live up to his contract, but he still puts up great numbers and plays 3B, a much more difficult position than Howard plays, and one that has very few great hitters at it. A Rod also is coming off of an injury and a lot of off the field problems. I'm not saying A Rod is worth more than Howard, I'm just saying. Joe Mauer is next on the list. Sure I'm a homer, but I have to think Mauer is worth a lot more than either of those guys are. He doesn't have the same power the other guys do, but last year his OPS was 1.031, Howards was .931. That's a big difference. A Rod's, if you were wondering, was .933. Most importantly, Mauer plays C and is in my opinion, and many others, the best combination of a defender and game caller in baseball. He also is making less than Howard is, but a lot of that is because of the home town discount he gave the Twins.



Then you look at the best hitter in baseball, Albert Pujols, who is also about to become the highest paid player whether with the Cardinals or not. Pujols' numbers are sick. They are video game numbers. To put it in perspective, Ryan Howard's best OPS was 1.084, A Rod's 1.067, and both in the middle of lineups filled with all stars. Albert Pujols?? Well he has had four season with a higher OPS than Howard's 1.084 in the last 7 seasons, and two more over 1.039. His down year was a terrible .997, which of course is still somehow .063 points higher than Justin Morneau's best year. Think of that. All of this while hitting in a lineup without anywhere near the help. Pujols also is a very good first baseman, and a few months younger than Howard.

All of this leads to the big question: Will St. Louis be able to re-sign Pujols? Its a valid question, especially with what Howard just got paid. After Mauer signed it looked great for St. Louis and Pujols. here was a kid who wanted to play where he was comfortable and was willing to give a discount because the fans loved him and he is Minnesota. Pujols may not have been born in St. Louis, but he has been there since he was a teenager. It looked like Pujols would be able to sign for a little less with less pressure from the players union to get paid. It looked like he would be able to get paid fairly, when compared to Mauer. It looked like St. Louis wold be able to follow in Minnesota's foot steps and find a way to keep their guy. We were thinking maybe $28 million a year, making sure he was the highest paid player while not breaking the bank for St. Louis. Now though? Well he is a better hitter than Howard, will be able to continue to be very effective as a hitter even if his power goes later in the contract because he is a great contact and gap hitter, he is better in the field, and he is in better shape, leading us to believe he will play better longer. Now it looks like St. Louis would be lucky to get him for $30 million a year.

I really hope that St. Louis finds a way. Whether they take the hit as a team to try and win, raise ticket prices a few dollars to make up the cost (remember, 3 million people go through the gates every year, money can be made up fast with small increases in ticket and/or concession prices) or cut their payroll elsewhere St. Louis needs to keep Pujols, not just for their sake, but for all of baseball's. We need more players staying in their cities instead of going elsewhere for paydays with the same teams. It will be better for baseball.

Howard is great hitter, don't get me wrong. He is probably worth it for the first couple years of his contract too, especially if Philadelphia can win another ring. In the long run though, I see this ending much in the same way as Mo Vaugn's huge contract with the Mets. Big guys tend to break down early. Its hard on their knees and the rest of their body. Big guys are more injury prone, Vaugn, Frank Thomas, David Ortiz and many others all started to break down as the moved towards their mid 30's. Its one thing for a guy to continue to play great if they are a defensive star or a great average hitter, that is more about hand eye coordination and instincts. Power is about, well, power. I think Philly should have waited to extended Howard, or maybe only extended him 3 years. That's me though. I watch from my couch. I also thought Oden was going to be better than Durant. I'll apologize for that one day. For now, I'll just give another opinion.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

NFL Draft Part 2

Well, so far the draft has been about as much fun as I can remember. This is just crazy. Jacksonville taking a guy that was supposed to be around late in the first round, if not in the second. Two running backs going in the top 11 when some thought Seattle could get Spiller at 14. Now Seattle is about to pick again, and while I thought Clausen would go I now think they will take Earl Thomas. That means the Vikes still have a chance to have Clausen fall close enough for them to get him. That would be great!

NFL Draft Part 1

Well, looks like my bold prediction is going to be wrong. I thought the Steelers would shock everyone by trading Big Ben to Oakland for their pick, McFadden and Russel, but with their pick one away it looks like I was wrong. Oh well, can't pick them all. Or in my case, most of them.

Anyway, onto Minnesota. I saw that one "expert" had TD Jimmy falling to the Vikes at 30. Now I'm not a huge Clausen fan, but if he was around at 30 I would take him in a heartbeat. If he was around in the 20's I'd try to find someone who would take a fourth this year and next, maybe a third, and move up and get him. That is not gonna happen though. Especially now that Seattle had Okung fall to them at 6. I'm guessing Clausen is gone by pick 14 to Seattle.

Now that we got Lito, we don't need to get a CB. That allows us to take the best player available.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Delmon Young

For those of you who don't know, Delmon is my guy. For some reason I am not willing to give up on him. I know he has underachieved with the Twins, and that may be an understatement, but give him a chance. He is still only 24 years old and still has more raw talent than most MLB players. His problem has not been talent, but a work ethic. I don't know this from any inside sources, but you can tell from whispers you hear. His own brother told us 3 years ago that he has all the talent in the world but needs to focus on using it. Dmitri was the same way, according to his own words, but without the talent Delmon has. I think the most showing stats are the way his seasons have progressed. He has started off poorly the last two seasons and has finished great. In 2009 he finished with 9 HR and 33 RBI while hitting over .300 in from August 1st on in just short of 200 at bats. Projecting that over a season at that pace he would hit close to 30 HR and finish with about 100 RBI, which is what we expected him to eventually hit. Unfortunately he finished with 12 HR and 60 RBI hitting .284, only getting a little over 400 at bats because of his inconsistency to start the year.

In 2008 he finished with a .290 average and 10 HR to go with 69 RBI....in 575 at bats. Not good. Especially considering he had 8 HR and 41 of his RBI while hitting .300 in July, Aug and September.

I think he finishes so strong because he is able to get in the swing of things as the season goes on. During the off season he is doing something wrong. Maybe he hasn't worked hard enough, maybe he hasn't had the attitude, and maybe he just doesn't know what he needs to do. This off season I think he dedicated himself a little more though. He came into the season looking good and with what seemed like a better attitude. He seemed to be having more fun. That is why this year is the year he will break out. I don't know if he will become the .300 30 100 guy we all want him to be, but look for him to make the next big step by getting over 20 HR and over 80 RBI. It might not be what everyone wants, but its a big step up. Remember, he turns 25 at the end of the season. Justin Morneau hit 22 HR and had 79 RBI in 2005 when he was the same age Delmon is now. Ryan Howard was a rookie in 2005, at the age of 26. Most players don't break into the league and do anything until their mid 20's.

You heard it here, Delmon is going to be a big factor this year. Expect him to hit .295 with 21 HR and 85 RBI. Expect the Twins to win.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

The Greatest Commercials Ever

I know there a lot of great commercials that have been made, but the greatest ever is obvious. Round Up may be one of the best songs ever. Do you know Sam Spence? Well you should. If you don't, you don't watch enough of NFL Films. Once you hear it, you'll know it. Once you watch the commercial, you will want BK. The King scores on this one. In more than one way.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGriO85UGLg&NR=1

The only thing the commercial (and song) are missing are a little more trombone. and some tuba.

The Lonely Island Boys

Its been awhile since I have went onto YouTube and watched some of The Lonely Island Boys videos, so I decided to do that tonight. I was surprised to see that only 12 million people have seen On A Boat and only 4.4 million have watched Jizzed in My Pants.

It may seem like a lot of views for the videos, but I really do feel bad for everyone who hasn't seen these videos. They are a rated R Weird Al. If you haven't seen the Lonely Island Boys yet, do it. do it.